Publications

Association Agreement in the Transnistrian Region: Mission Possible?

Sunday, 20 September 2015 Published in F1 - Trade H7 - State and Local Government Intergovernmental Relations Realitatea Economică Transnistreană Studii de politici publice
Authors: Adrian Lupușor,

Executive Summary The implementation of the AA/DCFTA in the Transnistrian region is crucial at least for two reasons: (i) political - it could serve as a strong precondition for converging the economies from both sides…

Evenimentul de lansare a Raportului de monitorizare a implementării Acordului de Asociere

Euromonitor - first results and difficulties in implementing Moldova-EU Association Agreement

Tuesday, 15 September 2015 Published in E0 - General Euromonitor F0 - General F5 - International Relations and International Political Economy Publications
Authors: Igor Boțan, Denis Cenușă, Mariana Kalughin, Adrian Lupușor, Iurie Morcotîlo, Polina Panainte, Elena Prohnițchi,

Key messages of the report: The report covers commitments undertaken by national authorities in 23 political areas, 15 fields related to economic and sector cooperation and 10 fields related to Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade…

Indicele Compozit Anticipator în iunie 2015

Real Economy from July 2015 (#53)

Monday, 10 August 2015 Published in E0 - General F0 - General H0 - General Realitatea Economică
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Key messages from the edition Moldovan economy continues its decline. In June 2015, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) - an index calculated monthly by Expert-Grup and which aggregates six main macroeconomic indicators, is down 1.6 points…

A potential Anti-Crisis Plan for the new Governement

Monday, 03 August 2015 Published in F0 - General G0 - General H0 - General Publications Studii de politici publice
Authors: Veaceslav Negruța, Adrian Lupușor,

Abstract The current status-quo of the Republic of Moldova can be labeled as a country amid a general crisis, evidenced through a combination of at least five self-sustaining crises: economic, institutional, budget, banking and social…

Impact of macroeconomic’ and banking sector’ problems on Moldova’s Public Budget

Tuesday, 04 August 2015 Published in E0 - General E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit F0 - General G0 - General H0 - General Publications Sectorul Public
Authors: Alexandru Fala, Dumitru Budianschi, Iurie Morcotîlo,

Abstract The current adverse economic developments in Moldova, unlike previous years, are mostly determined by domestic influences rather than external ones. The banking crisis had a crucial impact in deteriorating economic situation in Moldova, even…

Evaluating public spending in the Republic of Moldova

Wednesday, 29 July 2015 Published in H0 - General H1 - Structure and Scope of Government H4 - Publicly Provided Goods H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt H7 - State and Local Government Intergovernmental Relations H8 - Miscellaneous Issues Publications Sectorul Public
Authors: Iurie Morcotîlo,

Abstract In recent years, the public expenditures’ framework in Moldova has recorded several positive developments. These developments were both quantitatively and qualitatively. Improvements were primarily noticed in the public debt management, thanks to technical and…

Risks of freezing foreign financial assistance to Moldova and policy priorities

Tuesday, 28 July 2015 Published in E0 - General E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook Studii de politici publice
Authors: Veaceslav Negruța,

This analysis was initiated and developed in the context of the events as of 10 June 2015 when the Moldovan policy makers indirectly decided upon the inadmissibility of a new program with the International Monetary…

Efficiency of public spending in Moldova's education sector

Monday, 27 July 2015 Published in Sectorul Public
Authors: Alexandru Fala,

Abstract Moldova continues to spend a much larger share of its budget income on education sector than other countries in the region (allocations for education have reached 7% of GDP in 2014). Still, the sector…

How financially transparent is the Road Fund?

Friday, 31 July 2015 Published in H0 - General H4 - Publicly Provided Goods N7 - Transport, Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services Publications Sectorul Public
Authors: Dumitru Budianschi, Andrei Ababii, Serghei Merjan,

The share of Moldova’s Road Fund in the country’s State Budget and GDP in 2013 is quite impressive - almost 5.5% of State Budget and over 1.2% of GDP, compared to 1% of GDP for…

Budget Transparency Index in 2015

Monday, 20 July 2015 Published in H0 - General H4 - Publicly Provided Goods H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt Publications Sectorul Public
Authors: Dumitru Budianschi, Iurie Morcotîlo, Tatiana Savva,

Abstract This study aims to evaluate the level of budget transparency in the Republic of Moldova. Therefore, the level of budget transparency in Moldova remains unchanged in recent years, and this lack of progress has…

State of the Country Report 2015

Friday, 10 July 2015 Published in D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making F5 - International Relations and International Political Economy P1 - Capitalist Systems Raportul de Stare a Țării
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Ana Popa, Denis Cenușă, Iurie Morcotîlo, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

Currently, Republic of Moldova deals with arguably the biggest challenge to its economic security since proclaiming the independence in 1991. The endemic corruption, oligarchization of state institutions, presence of suspicious foreign capital in the country’s financial…

Evoluția Indicelui Compozit Anticipator în iunie 2015

Real Economy from June 2015 (#52)

Monday, 29 June 2015 Published in B0 - General E0 - General O1 - Economic Development Publications Realitatea Economică
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Key points from this edition Economic growth will slow noticeably and the economy is expected to stagnate by the end of this year. In the context of these extremely difficult economic, social and political conditions,…

Budget 2015 provisions for social protection of disabled people

Monday, 22 June 2015 Published in H0 - General H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies Publications Sectorul Public
Authors: Alisa Costin,

Summary Share of social expenditures in 2015 will reach 13.5% of GDP, or 32.3% of the total National Public Budget, ie a 1.7% increase compared to last year. At the same time, the State Social…

Progress report “Moldova in the Eastern Neighborhood Policy 2005-2014

Tuesday, 16 June 2015 Published in A3 - Collective Works Euromonitor H1 - Structure and Scope of Government H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents H4 - Publicly Provided Goods H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
Authors: Igor Boțan, Denis Cenușă, Mariana Kalughin, Adrian Lupușor, Iurie Morcotîlo, Polina Panainte,

Summary During 2005-2014, Moldova saw important progress in terms of European integration - signing the Association Agreement, visa liberalization with EU, ensuring more respect for human rights, providing e-governance, IT sector and social services’ reform.…

Foto: THIERRY ZOCCOLAN / AFP / Getty Images

Analysis on the budget expenditures in agriculture

Friday, 12 June 2015 Published in H0 - General H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies Sectorul Public
Authors: Iurie Morcotîlo,

Key messages from the report Agriculture plays an important role in Moldova's economy. Approximately 30.5% of country’s work force work in agriculture, while sector contribution to GDP was around 13% in 2014. Although financing for…

Crisis of the public pension system and intervention measures

Tuesday, 09 June 2015 Published in H0 - General J0 - General J1 - Demographic Economics Studii de politici publice
Authors: Adrian Lupușor,

Key messages from the report The public pension system in Moldova is not financially nor socially sustainable. While the State Social Insurance Budget (BASS) recorded a structural deficit of around 1% of GDP and total…

Wasting public funds: perception of the Local Authorities

Wednesday, 03 June 2015 Published in H0 - General H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue H4 - Publicly Provided Goods H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies H7 - State and Local Government Intergovernmental Relations Sectorul Public

Abstract In 2010-2014, Moldova’s Court of Accounts issued 46 decisions based on its audit reports aimed to evaluate the management of public funds and assets by local authorities of level I and II from over…

Budget 2015 provisions in the Culture sector

Monday, 01 June 2015 Published in H0 - General H4 - Publicly Provided Goods H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies Sectorul Public
Authors: Veaceslav Reabcinschi,

Summary Moldovan government paid in 2015 over 352 million MDL ($19.5 million) to the accounts of the Ministry of Culture - a 19% increase compared to last year. However, the share of culture spending in…

Decoding the Kroll report

Thursday, 28 May 2015 Published in Alte publicații E0 - General E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance Studii de politici publice
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Vladislav Gribincea, Alexei Buzu,

Key messages from the report According to the Kroll report, the amount of allegedly fraudulent loans (plus interest) reached 18 billion MDL ($1 billion), while the financial engineering conducted at these three banks were aimed…

Budget 2015 provisions on the Justice Sector

Tuesday, 26 May 2015 Published in H0 - General Publications Sectorul Public
Authors: Ion Guzun,

Key messages from the policy brief The State Budget for 2015 on the Justice and Human Right sectors continues to growth. In particular, the sum is intended for increasing wages of judges, building offices for…

Real Economy in May 2015 (#51)

Thursday, 21 May 2015 Published in B0 - General E0 - General O1 - Economic Development Realitatea Economică
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Moldova’s economy remains exposed to external shocks. Economic Leading Indicator, calculated by Expert-Grup and which includes six benchmark macroeconomic metrics, settled at 89 points after a continuous seven month’ decline, although it is still well…

Budget 2015' provisions for the Defence sector

Friday, 15 May 2015 Published in H0 - General Sectorul Public

Abstract The importance of the Defence sector has been often ignored by politicians and central authorities, and this approach has generated a number of major issues to the national defence. Here are some key data…

Budget 2015' provisions for the Youth sector

Tuesday, 12 May 2015 Published in H0 - General Sectorul Public
Authors: Alex Petrov,

Key messages from this policy brief: The estimated budget for implementing the 2020 National Strategy for Developing the Youth Sector - 53.5 million MDL ($2.9 million); The budget of the Ministry of Youth and Sport…

Budget 2015' provisions for the Education sector

Friday, 08 May 2015 Published in H0 - General Sectorul Public
Authors: Victoria Vasilescu,

Abstract Education is one of the strategic areas of development where Government will focus its attention this year. Therefore, reforms initiated in ensuring a more efficient resource management in Education will also continue in 2015.…

One year after visa liberalization with the EU: between ignorance and neglected benefits

Monday, 04 May 2015 Published in Comentarii economice O1 - Economic Development

Abstract Although visa liberalization marks a major success in Moldova’s quest to becoming closer to the EU, the process is ignored, underestimated and often challenged by a part of the society. This is due to…

Better roads and railways, once the Association Agreement is implemented

Thursday, 30 April 2015 Published in N0 - General N7 - Transport, Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services O1 - Economic Development Studii de politici publice
Authors: Sergiu Tofilat,

Abstract The road transport sector bears a significant impact on the economic development of the country and reforms to improve the transportation network are needed. Implementation of the Association Agreement will lead to better conditions…

EU and CIS Free Trade Area are compatible

Monday, 27 April 2015 Published in Alte publicații F0 - General O1 - Economic Development
Authors: Alexandru Fala,

Abstract Participation of a country in several free trade areas is a normal practice, and examples of that are multiple. Moldova too, is a member of several regional trade agreements, two of which are crucially…

Photo: Dan Mihăilescu/AFP & Noi.md. Colaj: Expert-Grup

Crisis in Moldova's banking system - a fundamental threat to the country’s national and economic security

Thursday, 23 April 2015 Published in Comentarii economice E0 - General E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit G0 - General G1 - General Financial Markets O1 - Economic Development

In recent months, the situation in our banking system has worsened considerably. All institutions responsible for the economic security silently allowed these fraudulent mega-transactions to materialize, therefore leading to the de-capitalization of these three systemic…

MEGA XII: The year of a looming crisis, Q1-2015

Wednesday, 15 April 2015 Published in E0 - General MEGA- Analiza creșterii economice în Moldova O1 - Economic Development
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Iurie Morcotîlo, Denis Cenușă,

See below the abstract. Download here the full report in English. The 2015 is going to be a difficult economic year, the Gross Domestic Product being expected to decline by about 0.2% according to the…

The most important 11 updates of the newly adopted Fiscal Policy for 2015

Thursday, 09 April 2015 Published in Comentarii economice H0 - General H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

Excerpt from the Romanian version: The amendments that were pushed by the Government for the 2015 fiscal policy were developed under low transparency. Still, at least some of the business associations have had the opportunity…

Evoluția exporturilor domestice către Federația Rusă. Sursa: Expert-Grup

Moldova and Russia: between trade relations and economic dependence

Tuesday, 07 April 2015 Published in Analiza și prognoză economică E0 - General N4 - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation O1 - Economic Development
Authors: Ana Popa,

Key messages of the report. Download the full report here. Russian Federation has been one of the main export partners of the Republic of Moldova during the whole transition period. However, the share of exports…

Association Agreement with the EU to bring financial and institutional support for Moldova’s SME’s

Thursday, 26 March 2015 Published in A1 - General Economics Alte publicații F0 - General F1 - Trade
Authors: Iurie Morcotîlo,

Small and Medium Enterprises, or SMEs, play an important role in Moldova’s economy. According to National Bureau of Statistics, the share of such enterprises out of total businesses is 97.4%, employing 56.9% from total workers…

Euromonitor 2014: an outlook on Moldova's evolution in implementing EU reforms in 2014

Tuesday, 24 March 2015 Published in A3 - Collective Works Euromonitor H1 - Structure and Scope of Government Studii de politici publice
Authors: Igor Boțan, Adrian Lupușor, Polina Panainte, Mariana Kalughin, Denis Cenușă, Iurie Morcotîlo,

Executive summary The bilateral relations between Moldovan and the EU reached a summit in 2014 after signing the Association Agreement and visa liberalization with the Schengen area. Association Agreement with the EU, which also involves…

Minimum wage: between economic efficiency an social equity

Friday, 20 March 2015 Published in Analiza și prognoză economică H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue J0 - General J1 - Demographic Economics J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor J3 - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
Authors: Iurie Morcotîlo,

Executive Summary The minimum wage remains a tool with contradictory outcomes in terms of income redistribution and social equity goals. Essentially, international data shows that increasing minimum wage does not actually contribute to income convergence.…

Analysis: Fall of Moldovan Leu

Friday, 13 March 2015 Published in Analiza și prognoză economică E0 - General O1 - Economic Development
Authors: Alexandru Fala,

Executive Summary Moldova was clearly in “false start” at the beginning of 2015. The turmoil on the foreign exchange market was just a high-intensity sequence in a systemic trend of depreciation of the Moldovan Leu…

Monthly economic review, February 2015 (#50)

Thursday, 05 March 2015 Published in B0 - General E0 - General O1 - Economic Development Realitatea Economică
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Moldovan economy slows down continuously. Economic Leading Indicator - Expert-Grup’s monthly index which includes 6 main macroeconomic metrics, has fallen for the 3rd month in a row, at 87 points. This dynamic shows ongoing negative…

Wasting the public money: Court of Accounts reports on Subsidy Fund for agricultural producers and Fund for Energy Efficiency in 2013

Monday, 23 February 2015 Published in H0 - General H4 - Publicly Provided Goods Sectorul Public Studii de politici publice
Authors: Tatiana Savva,

Abstract One of the main findings of this Report is that the subsidies’ distribution is discriminatory. Inequitable allocation of financial resources occurs largely because of its poor formula, vague formulation and due violating its regulations.…

The fall of Moldovan Leu. How can we recover it?

Thursday, 19 February 2015 Published in Comentarii economice E0 - General E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

This is an op-en wrote by Adrian Lupușor. Read more in the Romanian version.

Euromonitor, 4th quarter 2014 (#34)

Tuesday, 17 February 2015 Published in A3 - Collective Works Euromonitor H1 - Structure and Scope of Government H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents H4 - Publicly Provided Goods H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

Abstract In July 2014, the National Action Plan for the implementation of the Moldova-EU Association Agreement which provides several relevant actions for justice reform, has been approved. However, the justice sector has little credibility in…

Impact of the Association Agreement on the Energy sector

Thursday, 29 January 2015 Published in Alte publicații D2 - Production and Organizations D4 - Market Structure and Pricing F1 - Trade H0 - General
Authors: Iurie Morcotîlo,

Moldovan energy sector is a mix of inefficiency, dependency on external sources and low per capita consumption. Over 96% of energy consumption comes from imports, whereas only 40% in the EU. Also, the losses from…

Consumers in Moldova to benefit from the EU Association Agreement

Thursday, 29 January 2015 Published in Alte publicații N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy O1 - Economic Development Sectorul Public

Abstract Although consumption accounts for 92.2% from Moldova’s GDP, little has been done in order to improve consumers’ experience. This policy brief explains how the Association Agreement will change this status-quo. Once the Agreement has…

How the Police is benefiting from signing the Association Agreement

Tuesday, 20 January 2015 Published in Alte publicații H0 - General
Authors: Tatiana Savva,

Abstract Currently, Moldovan citizens view police as an institution with high risk of corruption. At the same time, lack of professionalism, lack of police inventory (alcohol measuring sets, digital cameras, cars) and lack of financial…

Transnistrian Economic Review, 4th quarter 2014 (#4)

Wednesday, 07 January 2015 Published in E0 - General O1 - Economic Development Realitatea Economică Transnistreană
Authors: Alexandru Fala, Adrian Lupușor,

Abstract The Q4-2014 issue of the Transnistrian Economic Review points an increase of the convergence index between the Moldovan and Transnistrian economies. Currently at 93.9%, the index recovered 0.4 percentage points over the second quarter,…

2014 Economic Review & Challenges for 2015

Monday, 29 December 2014 Published in Analiza și prognoză economică E0 - General O1 - Economic Development

Expert-Grup is launching its seveth annual economic review of the Republic of Moldova. The review includes: Top 5 successes in 2014 Top 5 failures in 2014 Top 5 challenges for 2015 The document includes 7…

Euromonitor (T3-2014, #33)

Wednesday, 24 December 2014 Published in Euromonitor
Authors: Igor Boțan, Polina Panainte, Mariana Kalughin, Denis Cenușă, Iurie Morcotîlo, Adrian Lupușor,

The quarterly monitoring report on the implementation of European Union – Moldova Action Plan (EURMAP) in the period of July-September 2014 has been produced within the joint project “EUMoldova relations – monitoring progress in the…

Regional Economic Review: Transnistrian region (#2, December 2014)

Monday, 22 December 2014 Published in Analiza Creșterii Economice în Transnistria E0 - General O1 - Economic Development
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Iurie Morcotîlo,

Expert-Grup launches the second issue of the Regional Economic Review: Transnistrian region. The report analyses the growth trends and economic risks of the Transnistrian region. The report is available in three languages: English, Romanian, Russian. Extras:…

MEGA XI: From political economy to economic policies

Thursday, 11 December 2014 Published in E0 - General MEGA- Analiza creșterii economice în Moldova O1 - Economic Development
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Iurie Morcotîlo,

Expert-Grup launched the 11th issue of the economic magazine MEGA: Moldova Economic Growth Analysis. The current edition analyzes the key macroeconomic and sector-level trends in 2014, provides forecasts for key economic indicators for 2015 and offers…

Open Data Readiness Assessment in Education in Moldova

Friday, 05 December 2014 Published in H0 - General Studii de politici publice
Authors: Dumitru Budianschi,

The Open Data Readiness Asessment for the education sector in Moldova was carried out as part of the “Empowered Citizens Enhancing Accountability of the Education Reform and Quality of Education in Moldova” initiative. The project…

First results of the financial education project "Learn! Give sense to money"

Monday, 24 November 2014 Published in Analiza și prognoză economică F0 - General F1 - Trade

The press release in available only in Romanian.

National Human Development Report 2014

Thursday, 20 November 2014 Published in M0 - General O1 - Economic Development Studii de politici publice
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Dumitru Budianschi, Victor Burunsus,

The National Human Development Report (NHDR) 2014 highlights the role of the private sector in Moldova’s human development. It reveals that a strong private sector is key to the country’s sustainable human development and that…

How does the Association Agreement with the EU tackle the challenges in Moldova's agriculture

Friday, 07 November 2014 Published in Analiza și prognoză economică F0 - General F1 - Trade

This publication is only available in Romanian.

Tax gap - an invisible reality

Monday, 10 November 2014 Published in H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue Sectorul Public
Authors: Dumitru Budianschi, Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Iurie Morcotîlo,

The purpose of this study is to highlight the most important features and phenomena related to tax administration in the Republic of Moldova. The study focuses on four major areas: to clarify the concept of…

Summary of Court of Auditors Resolutions First Half of 2014

Thursday, 06 November 2014 Published in H0 - General Publications Sectorul Public
Authors: Tatiana Savva,

This article is only available in Romanian.

Real Economy from October 2014 (#50)

Tuesday, 04 November 2014 Published in B0 - General E0 - General O1 - Economic Development Realitatea Economică

This publication is only available in Romanian.

State of Country Report 2014

Tuesday, 21 October 2014 Published in D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making F5 - International Relations and International Political Economy P1 - Capitalist Systems Raportul de Stare a Țării
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Denis Cenușă, Iurie Morcotîlo,

In 2013, the Republic of Moldova experienced an impressive economic performance: the 8.9% growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) was the highest in its modern history and places the country as one of the…

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