Publications

Moldovan economy is still in recession. For the 11th consecutive month, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) - an index calculated monthly by Expert-Grup and which aggregates six main macroeconomic indicators, is below 100, which indicates…
Summary The scale of irregularities found by Moldova’s Court of Accounts (CA) has exceeded 7 billion MDL in 2014, or USD 353 million. The audits have unearthed both technical and operational problems at the audited…
This study includes an analysis of the Moldovan legal framework in the field of labor legislation and policies aimed to support families with children – and more specifically in the framework of childcare leave for…
Резюме Внедрение СА / УВЗСТ в приднестровском регионе имеет  решающее значение, по крайней мере, в силу двух причин: (i) политическая - это может послужить серьезной предпосылкой для сближения    экономики обеих сторон Днестра и, соответственно, для…
Executive Summary The implementation of the AA/DCFTA in the Transnistrian region is crucial at least for two reasons: (i) political - it could serve as a strong precondition for converging the economies from both sides…
Key messages of the report: The report covers commitments undertaken by national authorities in 23 political areas, 15 fields related to economic and sector cooperation and 10 fields related to Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade…
Key messages from the edition Moldovan economy continues its decline. In June 2015, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) - an index calculated monthly by Expert-Grup and which aggregates six main macroeconomic indicators, is down 1.6 points…
Abstract The current status-quo of the Republic of Moldova can be labeled as a country amid a general crisis, evidenced through a combination of at least five self-sustaining crises: economic, institutional, budget, banking and social…
Abstract The current adverse economic developments in Moldova, unlike previous years, are mostly determined by domestic influences rather than external ones. The banking crisis had a crucial impact in deteriorating economic situation in Moldova, even…
Abstract In recent years, the public expenditures’ framework in Moldova has recorded several positive developments. These developments were both quantitatively and qualitatively. Improvements were primarily noticed in the public debt management, thanks to technical and…
This analysis was initiated and developed in the context of the events as of 10 June 2015 when the Moldovan policy makers indirectly decided upon the inadmissibility of a new program with the International Monetary…
Abstract Moldova continues to spend a much larger share of its budget income on education sector than other countries in the region (allocations for education have reached 7% of GDP in 2014). Still, the sector…
The share of Moldova’s Road Fund in the country’s State Budget and GDP in 2013 is quite impressive - almost 5.5% of State Budget and over 1.2% of GDP, compared to 1% of GDP for…
Abstract This study aims to evaluate the level of budget transparency in the Republic of Moldova. Therefore, the level of budget transparency in Moldova remains unchanged in recent years, and this lack of progress has…
Currently, Republic of Moldova deals with arguably the biggest challenge to its economic security since proclaiming the independence in 1991. The endemic corruption, oligarchization of state institutions, presence of suspicious foreign capital in the country’s financial…
Key points from this edition Economic growth will slow noticeably and the economy is expected to stagnate by the end of this year. In the context of these extremely difficult economic, social and political conditions,…
Summary Share of social expenditures in 2015 will reach 13.5% of GDP, or 32.3% of the total National Public Budget, ie a 1.7% increase compared to last year. At the same time, the State Social…
Summary During 2005-2014, Moldova saw important progress in terms of European integration - signing the Association Agreement, visa liberalization with EU, ensuring more respect for human rights, providing e-governance, IT sector and social services’ reform.…
Key messages from the report Agriculture plays an important role in Moldova's economy. Approximately 30.5% of country’s work force work in agriculture, while sector contribution to GDP was around 13% in 2014. Although financing for…
Key messages from the report The public pension system in Moldova is not financially nor socially sustainable. While the State Social Insurance Budget (BASS) recorded a structural deficit of around 1% of GDP and total…
Abstract In 2010-2014, Moldova’s Court of Accounts issued 46 decisions based on its audit reports aimed to evaluate the management of public funds and assets by local authorities of level I and II from over…
Summary Moldovan government paid in 2015 over 352 million MDL ($19.5 million) to the accounts of the Ministry of Culture - a 19% increase compared to last year. However, the share of culture spending in…
Key messages from the report According to the Kroll report, the amount of allegedly fraudulent loans (plus interest) reached 18 billion MDL ($1 billion), while the financial engineering conducted at these three banks were aimed…

Budget 2015 provisions on the Justice Sector

Tuesday, 26 May 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Ion Guzun,
Key messages from the policy brief The State Budget for 2015 on the Justice and Human Right sectors continues to growth. In particular, the sum is intended for increasing wages of judges, building offices for…

Real Economy in May 2015 (#51)

Thursday, 21 May 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,
Moldova’s economy remains exposed to external shocks. Economic Leading Indicator, calculated by Expert-Grup and which includes six benchmark macroeconomic metrics, settled at 89 points after a continuous seven month’ decline, although it is still well…
Abstract The importance of the Defence sector has been often ignored by politicians and central authorities, and this approach has generated a number of major issues to the national defence. Here are some key data…

Budget 2015' provisions for the Youth sector

Tuesday, 12 May 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Alex Petrov,
Key messages from this policy brief: The estimated budget for implementing the 2020 National Strategy for Developing the Youth Sector - 53.5 million MDL ($2.9 million); The budget of the Ministry of Youth and Sport…
Abstract Education is one of the strategic areas of development where Government will focus its attention this year. Therefore, reforms initiated in ensuring a more efficient resource management in Education will also continue in 2015.…
Abstract Although visa liberalization marks a major success in Moldova’s quest to becoming closer to the EU, the process is ignored, underestimated and often challenged by a part of the society. This is due to…
Abstract The road transport sector bears a significant impact on the economic development of the country and reforms to improve the transportation network are needed. Implementation of the Association Agreement will lead to better conditions…

EU and CIS Free Trade Area are compatible

Monday, 27 April 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Alexandru Fala,
Abstract Participation of a country in several free trade areas is a normal practice, and examples of that are multiple. Moldova too, is a member of several regional trade agreements, two of which are crucially…
In recent months, the situation in our banking system has worsened considerably. All institutions responsible for the economic security silently allowed these fraudulent mega-transactions to materialize, therefore leading to the de-capitalization of these three systemic…
See below the abstract. Download here the full report in English. The 2015 is going to be a difficult economic year, the Gross Domestic Product being expected to decline by about 0.2% according to the…
Excerpt from the Romanian version: The amendments that were pushed by the Government for the 2015 fiscal policy were developed under low transparency. Still, at least some of the business associations have had the opportunity…
Key messages of the report. Download the full report here. Russian Federation has been one of the main export partners of the Republic of Moldova during the whole transition period. However, the share of exports…
Small and Medium Enterprises, or SMEs, play an important role in Moldova’s economy. According to National Bureau of Statistics, the share of such enterprises out of total businesses is 97.4%, employing 56.9% from total workers…
Executive summary The bilateral relations between Moldovan and the EU reached a summit in 2014 after signing the Association Agreement and visa liberalization with the Schengen area. Association Agreement with the EU, which also involves…
Executive Summary The minimum wage remains a tool with contradictory outcomes in terms of income redistribution and social equity goals. Essentially, international data shows that increasing minimum wage does not actually contribute to income convergence.…

Analysis: Fall of Moldovan Leu

Friday, 13 March 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Alexandru Fala,
Executive Summary Moldova was clearly in “false start” at the beginning of 2015. The turmoil on the foreign exchange market was just a high-intensity sequence in a systemic trend of depreciation of the Moldovan Leu…
Moldovan economy slows down continuously. Economic Leading Indicator - Expert-Grup’s monthly index which includes 6 main macroeconomic metrics, has fallen for the 3rd month in a row, at 87 points. This dynamic shows ongoing negative…
Abstract One of the main findings of this Report is that the subsidies’ distribution is discriminatory. Inequitable allocation of financial resources occurs largely because of its poor formula, vague formulation and due violating its regulations.…
This is an op-en wrote by Adrian Lupușor. Read more in the Romanian version.

Euromonitor, 4th quarter 2014 (#34)

Tuesday, 17 February 2015 Published in Publications
Abstract In July 2014, the National Action Plan for the implementation of the Moldova-EU Association Agreement which provides several relevant actions for justice reform, has been approved. However, the justice sector has little credibility in…
Moldovan energy sector is a mix of inefficiency, dependency on external sources and low per capita consumption. Over 96% of energy consumption comes from imports, whereas only 40% in the EU. Also, the losses from…
Abstract Although consumption accounts for 92.2% from Moldova’s GDP, little has been done in order to improve consumers’ experience.  This policy brief explains how the Association Agreement will change this status-quo. Once the Agreement has…
Abstract Currently, Moldovan citizens view police as an institution with high risk of corruption. At the same time, lack of professionalism, lack of police inventory (alcohol measuring sets, digital cameras, cars) and lack of financial…
Abstract The Q4-2014 issue of the Transnistrian Economic Review points an increase of the convergence index between the Moldovan and Transnistrian economies. Currently at 93.9%, the index recovered 0.4 percentage points over the second quarter,…

2014 Economic Review & Challenges for 2015

Monday, 29 December 2014 Published in Publications
Expert-Grup is launching its seveth annual economic review of the Republic of Moldova. The review includes: Top 5 successes in 2014 Top 5 failures in 2014 Top 5 challenges for 2015 The document includes 7…
The quarterly monitoring report on the implementation of European Union – Moldova Action Plan (EURMAP) in the period of July-September 2014 has been produced within the joint project “EUMoldova relations – monitoring progress in the…
Expert-Grup launches the second issue of the Regional Economic Review: Transnistrian region. The report analyses the growth trends and economic risks of the Transnistrian region.  The report is available in three languages: English, Romanian, Russian. Extras:…
Expert-Grup launched the 11th issue of the economic magazine MEGA: Moldova Economic Growth Analysis. The current edition analyzes the key macroeconomic and sector-level trends in 2014, provides forecasts for key economic indicators for 2015 and offers…
The Open Data Readiness Asessment for the education sector in Moldova was carried out as part of the “Empowered Citizens Enhancing Accountability of the Education Reform and Quality of Education in Moldova” initiative. The project…
The press release in available only in Romanian.
The National Human Development Report (NHDR) 2014 highlights the role of the private sector in Moldova’s human development. It reveals that a strong private sector is key to the country’s sustainable human development and that…
This publication is only available in Romanian.

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