Publications

Sumar informațional: Zona de Liber Schimb și Aprofundat Moldova-UE (ZLSAC/DCFTA)

Monday, 04 April 2016 Published in Publications
Authors: BDR Associates Moldova,

Ținând cont de multitudinea informației dedicate implementării prevederilor ce ţin de Zona de Liber Schimb Aprofundat și Cuprinzător ZLSAC / DCFTA, precum și numărul tot mai mare de platforme informaționale, mediul de afaceri din țară…

Financial Monitor 1st isue: results of monitoring recent reforms in the financial-banking industry

Tuesday, 29 March 2016 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor,

Summary The monitoring process covered four major actions: (1) the Financial-Banking Package, adopted by the Parliament at 25 February 2016; (2) Project for the Roadmap on priority reforms’ Agenda, adopted at 25 February 2016; (3)…

The National Committee on Financial Stability: why and how to reform it

Wednesday, 23 March 2016 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Ricardo Giucci,

Executive Summary The National Committee for Financial Stability, the office in charge with coordinating the institutions responsible with ensuring financial sector’s stability, currently faces serious problems of governance, caused by strong political affiliation and unclear…

Transparency and shareholders' quality rating for Moldovan banks

Thursday, 25 February 2016 Published in Publications
Authors: Dumitru Pîntea, Adrian Lupușor,

This document features a detailed analysis of the shareholders of Moldovan banks, producing a rating of transparency and shareholders’ quality. Excerpt According to the analysis, only four banks (out of 11), exceed the 7 points’…

Transnistrian Economic Brief, February 2016 (#5)

Wednesday, 17 February 2016 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Ana Popa, Alexandru Fala,

Key messages from the current issue The level of economic development between both banks of the Nistru river is getting closes, amid the worsening economic situation in both zones. Nonetheless, the downturn in the Transnistrian…

Budget Transparency Index 2015 - Moldova's position in the world rankings

Monday, 15 February 2016 Published in Publications
Authors: Tatiana Savva,

This is a summary of the report. Full version available only in Romanian Expert-Grup assessed the Budget Transparency Index (BTI) for the Republic of Moldova and found no progress in recent years, largely due to…

The Roadmap for restoring the Moldovan banking industry

Monday, 08 February 2016 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Dumitru Pîntea,

Summary The banking crisis, which sent shockwaves in the Moldovan economy in 2015, can be solved by implementing a Roadmap that includes seven urgent measures, implemented both at the level of the regulatory authority and…

Expanding the Iasi-Ungheni pipeline to Chisinau: challenges and opportunities

Thursday, 04 February 2016 Published in Publications
Authors: Denis Cenușă, Ana Otilia Nuțu,

Peer reviewer: Alexandru Săndulescu, former energy policy advisor to the Prime Minister of Moldova Executive summary The extension of the Iasi-Ungheni pipeline is a major objective for the Moldovan energy sector. Interconnecting Moldova with the…

Photo: Dan Mihăilescu/AFP & Noi.md. Colaj: Expert-Grup

Evaluation of the Moldovan banking sector for 2015

Thursday, 28 January 2016 Published in Publications
Authors: Alexandru Fala,

Summary Last year was a turning one for Moldovan baking system, when systemic weaknesses combined with large-scale fraudulent transactions have triggered an unprecedented banking crisis. As a result, the reduction of deposits attracted and the…

Euromonitor: implementation of the EU-Moldova Association Agreement during Aug-Dec 2015

Wednesday, 27 January 2016 Published in Publications
Authors: Igor Boțan, Denis Cenușă, Mariana Kalughin, Adrian Lupușor, Iurie Morcotîlo, Polina Panainte, Elena Prohnițchi,

Summary This EUROMONITOR Report - First achievements and difficulties in implementing the EU-Moldova Association Agreement presents the monitoring results of the EU-Moldova Association Agreement implementation during July 2015 - December 2016. The Association for Participatory…

How well the public funds were managed in Q1-2015

Tuesday, 22 December 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Tatiana Savva,

During the first quarter of 2015, Moldovan Court of Accounts published 14 audit reports. Our experts analysed them and highlighted the main findings in this report (available only in Romanian). One of the main findings…

Lansarea raportului MEGA pentru T4-2015. Decembrie 2015

MEGA Q4-2015: 2015 was the year when everything in our economy turned bad

Thursday, 17 December 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Ana Popa, Iurie Morcotîlo, Vadim Gumene,

This is the 13th issue of the Moldova Economic Growth Analysis (MEGA), which analyzes the key macroeconomic and sector-level trends in 2015 and provides forecasts for key economic indicators for the next two years. Key…

Foto: Tiraspol downtown. Robert Harding Picture Library Ltd / Alamy

Экономика Приднестровья на перекрестке?

Thursday, 10 December 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Iurie Morcotîlo, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

Это третий выпуск издания „Региональный экономический журнал: Приднестровье”, который проанализирует экономическую эволюцию Приднестровья, основные макроэкономические и секторные тенденции к концу 2015 года и предоставит прогнозы в отношении ключевых экономических показателей в 2016 г. Главные идеи…

Foto: Robert Harding Picture Library Ltd / Alamy

Transnistrian economy at the crossroads?

Thursday, 10 December 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Iurie Morcotîlo, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

This is the 3rd issue of the Regional Economic Review: Transnistrian region, which analyses the economic evolution of the region from Dniester’s left bank, explains the key macroeconomic and sector-level trends in the region and…

DCFTA between Moldova and EU after one year

Friday, 04 December 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa,

Key Messages September 2015 marked one year since the implementation of DCFTA (Deep & Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement) between Moldova and EU began, and its results were overshadowed by the country’s economic and political problems,…

Budget Rectification for 2015: the disaster will be avoided, but further risks await in 2016

Monday, 16 November 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Iurie Morcotîlo,

Abstract Moldovan economy faced this year many challenges, which had negative repercussions on the public finances. Budgetary revenues were affected largely due to the decrease in imports, freezing the foreign assistance and the rising cost…

Portul Internațional Giurgiulești | Foto: Dmitry Kostyukov pentru New York Times

Real Economy from October 2015 (#54)

Monday, 02 November 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Moldovan economy is still in recession. For the 11th consecutive month, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) - an index calculated monthly by Expert-Grup and which aggregates six main macroeconomic indicators, is below 100, which indicates…

Monitoring report on the execution of Court of Accounts' recommendations in 2014

Monday, 12 October 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Tatiana Savva,

Summary The scale of irregularities found by Moldova’s Court of Accounts (CA) has exceeded 7 billion MDL in 2014, or USD 353 million. The audits have unearthed both technical and operational problems at the audited…

The reform of the childcare leave for children: shorter, better paid, followed by good childcare services

Wednesday, 07 October 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Constanța Popescu,

This study includes an analysis of the Moldovan legal framework in the field of labor legislation and policies aimed to support families with children – and more specifically in the framework of childcare leave for…

Внедрение Соглашения об ассоциации в приднестровском регионе: миссия выполнима?

Monday, 21 September 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor,

Резюме Внедрение СА / УВЗСТ в приднестровском регионе имеет решающее значение, по крайней мере, в силу двух причин: (i) политическая - это может послужить серьезной предпосылкой для сближения экономики обеих сторон Днестра и, соответственно, для…

Association Agreement in the Transnistrian Region: Mission Possible?

Sunday, 20 September 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor,

Executive Summary The implementation of the AA/DCFTA in the Transnistrian region is crucial at least for two reasons: (i) political - it could serve as a strong precondition for converging the economies from both sides…

Evenimentul de lansare a Raportului de monitorizare a implementării Acordului de Asociere

Euromonitor - first results and difficulties in implementing Moldova-EU Association Agreement

Tuesday, 15 September 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Igor Boțan, Denis Cenușă, Mariana Kalughin, Adrian Lupușor, Iurie Morcotîlo, Polina Panainte, Elena Prohnițchi,

Key messages of the report: The report covers commitments undertaken by national authorities in 23 political areas, 15 fields related to economic and sector cooperation and 10 fields related to Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade…

Indicele Compozit Anticipator în iunie 2015

Real Economy from July 2015 (#53)

Monday, 10 August 2015 Published in Economic and political monthly review
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Key messages from the edition Moldovan economy continues its decline. In June 2015, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) - an index calculated monthly by Expert-Grup and which aggregates six main macroeconomic indicators, is down 1.6 points…

A potential Anti-Crisis Plan for the new Governement

Monday, 03 August 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Veaceslav Negruța, Adrian Lupușor,

Abstract The current status-quo of the Republic of Moldova can be labeled as a country amid a general crisis, evidenced through a combination of at least five self-sustaining crises: economic, institutional, budget, banking and social…

Impact of macroeconomic’ and banking sector’ problems on Moldova’s Public Budget

Tuesday, 04 August 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Alexandru Fala, Dumitru Budianschi, Iurie Morcotîlo,

Abstract The current adverse economic developments in Moldova, unlike previous years, are mostly determined by domestic influences rather than external ones. The banking crisis had a crucial impact in deteriorating economic situation in Moldova, even…

Evaluating public spending in the Republic of Moldova

Wednesday, 29 July 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Iurie Morcotîlo,

Abstract In recent years, the public expenditures’ framework in Moldova has recorded several positive developments. These developments were both quantitatively and qualitatively. Improvements were primarily noticed in the public debt management, thanks to technical and…

Risks of freezing foreign financial assistance to Moldova and policy priorities

Tuesday, 28 July 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Veaceslav Negruța,

This analysis was initiated and developed in the context of the events as of 10 June 2015 when the Moldovan policy makers indirectly decided upon the inadmissibility of a new program with the International Monetary…

Efficiency of public spending in Moldova's education sector

Monday, 27 July 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Alexandru Fala,

Abstract Moldova continues to spend a much larger share of its budget income on education sector than other countries in the region (allocations for education have reached 7% of GDP in 2014). Still, the sector…

How financially transparent is the Road Fund?

Friday, 31 July 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Dumitru Budianschi, Andrei Ababii, Serghei Merjan,

The share of Moldova’s Road Fund in the country’s State Budget and GDP in 2013 is quite impressive - almost 5.5% of State Budget and over 1.2% of GDP, compared to 1% of GDP for…

Budget Transparency Index in 2015

Monday, 20 July 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Dumitru Budianschi, Iurie Morcotîlo, Tatiana Savva,

Abstract This study aims to evaluate the level of budget transparency in the Republic of Moldova. Therefore, the level of budget transparency in Moldova remains unchanged in recent years, and this lack of progress has…

State of the Country Report 2015

Friday, 10 July 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Ana Popa, Denis Cenușă, Iurie Morcotîlo, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

Currently, Republic of Moldova deals with arguably the biggest challenge to its economic security since proclaiming the independence in 1991. The endemic corruption, oligarchization of state institutions, presence of suspicious foreign capital in the country’s financial…

Evoluția Indicelui Compozit Anticipator în iunie 2015

Real Economy from June 2015 (#52)

Monday, 29 June 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Key points from this edition Economic growth will slow noticeably and the economy is expected to stagnate by the end of this year. In the context of these extremely difficult economic, social and political conditions,…

Budget 2015 provisions for social protection of disabled people

Monday, 22 June 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Alisa Costin,

Summary Share of social expenditures in 2015 will reach 13.5% of GDP, or 32.3% of the total National Public Budget, ie a 1.7% increase compared to last year. At the same time, the State Social…

Progress report “Moldova in the Eastern Neighborhood Policy 2005-2014

Tuesday, 16 June 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Igor Boțan, Denis Cenușă, Mariana Kalughin, Adrian Lupușor, Iurie Morcotîlo, Polina Panainte,

Summary During 2005-2014, Moldova saw important progress in terms of European integration - signing the Association Agreement, visa liberalization with EU, ensuring more respect for human rights, providing e-governance, IT sector and social services’ reform.…

Foto: THIERRY ZOCCOLAN / AFP / Getty Images

Analysis on the budget expenditures in agriculture

Friday, 12 June 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Iurie Morcotîlo,

Key messages from the report Agriculture plays an important role in Moldova's economy. Approximately 30.5% of country’s work force work in agriculture, while sector contribution to GDP was around 13% in 2014. Although financing for…

Crisis of the public pension system and intervention measures

Tuesday, 09 June 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor,

Key messages from the report The public pension system in Moldova is not financially nor socially sustainable. While the State Social Insurance Budget (BASS) recorded a structural deficit of around 1% of GDP and total…

Wasting public funds: perception of the Local Authorities

Wednesday, 03 June 2015 Published in Publications

Abstract In 2010-2014, Moldova’s Court of Accounts issued 46 decisions based on its audit reports aimed to evaluate the management of public funds and assets by local authorities of level I and II from over…

Budget 2015 provisions in the Culture sector

Monday, 01 June 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Veaceslav Reabcinschi,

Summary Moldovan government paid in 2015 over 352 million MDL ($19.5 million) to the accounts of the Ministry of Culture - a 19% increase compared to last year. However, the share of culture spending in…

Decoding the Kroll report

Thursday, 28 May 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Vladislav Gribincea, Alexei Buzu,

Key messages from the report According to the Kroll report, the amount of allegedly fraudulent loans (plus interest) reached 18 billion MDL ($1 billion), while the financial engineering conducted at these three banks were aimed…

Budget 2015 provisions on the Justice Sector

Tuesday, 26 May 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Ion Guzun,

Key messages from the policy brief The State Budget for 2015 on the Justice and Human Right sectors continues to growth. In particular, the sum is intended for increasing wages of judges, building offices for…

Real Economy in May 2015 (#51)

Thursday, 21 May 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Moldova’s economy remains exposed to external shocks. Economic Leading Indicator, calculated by Expert-Grup and which includes six benchmark macroeconomic metrics, settled at 89 points after a continuous seven month’ decline, although it is still well…

Budget 2015' provisions for the Defence sector

Friday, 15 May 2015 Published in Publications

Abstract The importance of the Defence sector has been often ignored by politicians and central authorities, and this approach has generated a number of major issues to the national defence. Here are some key data…

Budget 2015' provisions for the Youth sector

Tuesday, 12 May 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Alex Petrov,

Key messages from this policy brief: The estimated budget for implementing the 2020 National Strategy for Developing the Youth Sector - 53.5 million MDL ($2.9 million); The budget of the Ministry of Youth and Sport…

Budget 2015' provisions for the Education sector

Friday, 08 May 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Victoria Vasilescu,

Abstract Education is one of the strategic areas of development where Government will focus its attention this year. Therefore, reforms initiated in ensuring a more efficient resource management in Education will also continue in 2015.…

One year after visa liberalization with the EU: between ignorance and neglected benefits

Monday, 04 May 2015 Published in Economic Commentaries

Abstract Although visa liberalization marks a major success in Moldova’s quest to becoming closer to the EU, the process is ignored, underestimated and often challenged by a part of the society. This is due to…

Better roads and railways, once the Association Agreement is implemented

Thursday, 30 April 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Sergiu Tofilat,

Abstract The road transport sector bears a significant impact on the economic development of the country and reforms to improve the transportation network are needed. Implementation of the Association Agreement will lead to better conditions…

EU and CIS Free Trade Area are compatible

Monday, 27 April 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Alexandru Fala,

Abstract Participation of a country in several free trade areas is a normal practice, and examples of that are multiple. Moldova too, is a member of several regional trade agreements, two of which are crucially…

Crisis in Moldova's banking system - a fundamental threat to the country’s national and economic security

Thursday, 23 April 2015 Published in Economic Commentaries

In recent months, the situation in our banking system has worsened considerably. All institutions responsible for the economic security silently allowed these fraudulent mega-transactions to materialize, therefore leading to the de-capitalization of these three systemic…

MEGA XII: The year of a looming crisis, Q1-2015

Wednesday, 15 April 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Iurie Morcotîlo, Denis Cenușă,

See below the abstract. Download here the full report in English. The 2015 is going to be a difficult economic year, the Gross Domestic Product being expected to decline by about 0.2% according to the…

The most important 11 updates of the newly adopted Fiscal Policy for 2015

Thursday, 09 April 2015 Published in Economic Commentaries

Excerpt from the Romanian version: The amendments that were pushed by the Government for the 2015 fiscal policy were developed under low transparency. Still, at least some of the business associations have had the opportunity…

Evoluția exporturilor domestice către Federația Rusă. Sursa: Expert-Grup

Moldova and Russia: between trade relations and economic dependence

Tuesday, 07 April 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa,

Key messages of the report. Download the full report here. Russian Federation has been one of the main export partners of the Republic of Moldova during the whole transition period. However, the share of exports…

Association Agreement with the EU to bring financial and institutional support for Moldova’s SME’s

Thursday, 26 March 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Iurie Morcotîlo,

Small and Medium Enterprises, or SMEs, play an important role in Moldova’s economy. According to National Bureau of Statistics, the share of such enterprises out of total businesses is 97.4%, employing 56.9% from total workers…

Euromonitor 2014: an outlook on Moldova's evolution in implementing EU reforms in 2014

Tuesday, 24 March 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Igor Boțan, Adrian Lupușor, Polina Panainte, Mariana Kalughin, Denis Cenușă, Iurie Morcotîlo,

Executive summary The bilateral relations between Moldovan and the EU reached a summit in 2014 after signing the Association Agreement and visa liberalization with the Schengen area. Association Agreement with the EU, which also involves…

Minimum wage: between economic efficiency an social equity

Friday, 20 March 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Iurie Morcotîlo,

Executive Summary The minimum wage remains a tool with contradictory outcomes in terms of income redistribution and social equity goals. Essentially, international data shows that increasing minimum wage does not actually contribute to income convergence.…

Analysis: Fall of Moldovan Leu

Friday, 13 March 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Alexandru Fala,

Executive Summary Moldova was clearly in “false start” at the beginning of 2015. The turmoil on the foreign exchange market was just a high-intensity sequence in a systemic trend of depreciation of the Moldovan Leu…

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