The current edition of the Euromonitor covers the evolution recorded in the 4th quarter 2012 within the European Integration reforms. After two years of talks, the most important Laws/Acts regarding competition – the Competition Act and Government Support Act were adopted.
In the 4th quarter, four regulation drafts which are meant to ensure a better functionality for this law were adopted. In order to fight the unfair competition practices and avoid consumer discrimination, the Government has endorsed a draft to amend the Law regarding Petrol Market – a draft which seeks a major liberalization on the petrol market operations. Also, a National Strategy for Intellectual Rights until 2020 and the Action Plan for its implementation in 2012-2014 were adopted.
This progress is merely a technical one, and issues such as creation of a quality infrastructure, lack of transparency in public acquisitions, a difficult dialogue between the regulating bodies essentially burden the consolidation of the market regulation institutions. In the same period, Brussels hosted the 4th round of negotiations regarding the ZLSAC Free Trade Zone Agreement.
The effective implementation of this Free Trade Zone will lead to a growth in EU exports with an estimated 16%, and the GPD will climb with ~5.6%. The EU negotiations had rapidly advanced in the 4th quarter. Nonetheless, the main issues and difficulties were related to the Transnistrian frozen conflict.
The passive involvement of the leader from the separatist regions will have a negative impact towards the businesses from the region, mainly for those companies who plan to export goods to EU.
Despite the negative economic growth registered in the third quater of 2012 and which is estimated to have persisted until the end of the year, the economic leading indicator (ELI) computed by EXPERT-GRUP posted a moderate increase. It follows after a harsh decline during Q4:11 – Q2:12 and stabilization in the third quarter of 2012. Given the fact that ELI tends to predict by four months on average the state of the national economy, its current dynamics bodes well for a slight economic recovery which might take place in 2013. It corroborates with our forecast of 3.0%-3.5% for the real GDP growth in 2013, which is broadly in line with the estimates of World Bank (+3.1%), EBRD (3.0%) and slightly less optimistic as that of IMF (+4.0%). The key assumption about the expected revival in economic activity is related to the dissipation of the drought effects this year.
EXPERT-GRUP will present the findings of the eight issue of the Moldova Economic Growth Analysis (MEGA), which analyzes the evolution of the Moldovan economy in October - December 2012, explains the key macroeconomic and sector-level trends and provides forecasts for key economic indicators for the 2013.
We intend to discuss with the representatives of the central authorities and experts in the field the most important developments and recent economic risks, including:
- the importance of macroeconomic forecasts in the budgetary process;
- Worsening labor market indicators and the impact of drought on economic growth in the following quarters;
- risks for domestic economy in the current European economic context.
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Valeriu Prohnitchi, executive director of the EXPERT-GRUP discussing with Vasile Botnaru, Europa Libera on State Budget for 2012: expectations and results.
Valeriu Prohnitchi, executive director of the EXPERT-GRUP, in conversation with Vasile Botnaru from Europa Libera on the export potential of Transnistria: http://www.europalibera.org/content/article/24880919.html
This is the fifth annual economic radiography made by the Independent Think-Tank EXPERT-GRUP. We find that 2012 was one of the most difficult economic years for Moldova: the country was affected by external economic and climate shocks, both outside of Governmental and business control. The publication presents the most important economic trends and events, the most successful and erroneous economic policies in 2012 and provide a top of the most prominent potential risks for 2013.
Full document avilable only in Romanian.
In this study we identify the main causes explaining the worse dynamics of Moldovan exports to EU as compared to other destinations during 2012. Based on a gravitational model we test if it has been primarily determined by crisis repercussions from this region or the main cause is related to eroding competitiveness of Moldovan exports on the EU market. The estimations reveal that the crisis effect prevails, while the integration level of Moldovan producers on the community market substantially increased during the recent years. As a result, the negative dynamics of Moldova’s exports to EU, noticed during 2012, should not hamper the negotiations on the future Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. Obviously, low competitiveness is still an acute problem for Moldova, while increasing dependency of Moldovan producers on the EU economy implies, also, a series of risks given the current economic recession in this region. Hence, in order to minimize the costs and maximize the benefits of this integration process the Moldovan economy needs a substantial modernization.
Valeriu Prohitchi, executive director of the EXPERT-GRUP, taking part in the “Moldova in Direct” talk-show broadcasted by the Moldova 1, on 2 of December 2012, discussing the European integration aspiration of Moldova and its human development.
A slight increase in the Economic Leading Indicator was registered during the last few months, which could be a positive signal for possible gradual improvement in the economic situation in the following 4-6 months. In fact Moldovan economy experienced a rather negative evolution with worsening trends for most of the indicators composing the ELI. Only the 23% growth in remittances surprised us positively and, even if it indicates over the persistence of unsustainable growth model based on consumption, in the short term it can be considered a positive development.
Full version available only in Romanian.
The topic of the report is particularly relevant for the current situation of economic convalescence of the Republic of Moldova. In its early transition, this country suffered an acute economic collapse which also worsened its social indicators. The year 2000 was a turning point for the economy, after which, in the period 2001 to 2005 the economy grew on average 7 percent annually. But what about the quality of this growth? Is the Republic of Moldova able to provide the conditions necessary for long-lasting economic growth? What has to be done in order for this economic growth to translate more into human development? This report is trying to answer these and other questions.