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Thursday, 13 January 2011 00:00

Real Economy, no.16

The radiography of the 2010 economic year covers three essential aspects: a) the most important 5 economic events of 2010; b) the most revealing 5 macroeconomic trends; c) the most noticeable 5 faults of the economic policy. On the top of this, we add another interesting element: d) top 5 major risks for 2011.

Thursday, 07 October 2010 00:00

Real Economy, no.15

During the first half of 2011, Moldova registered a good economic dynamic, with an economic growth of 5.6% y-o-y, accelerating from the previous quarter. This evolution was mostly due to increasing growth rate in agriculture, industry and services. At the same time, the edition no.15 of the Real Economy notices a strong growth in private and public domestic demand for goods and services which was mostly covered from imports. This reveals the risks of consolidation of the previous economic growth model, which was mostly based on consumption.

Full version available only in Romanian.

Thursday, 29 July 2010 00:00

Real Economy, no.14

After the first signs of economic recovery already appeared at the end of 2009, the Moldovan economy returned to a robust growth of 4.7% during the first quarter of 2011. At the same time, final consumption is becoming again the main growth factor of GDP, while the fixed capital formation remained on its downward slope. Although, the quality of this economic growth is very questionable, it fuels optimism and increases the possibility of over-shooting the IMF forecast of 2.5% for the current year.

Full version available only in Romanian.

Thursday, 15 April 2010 00:00

Real Economy, no.13

Moldovan economy has exceeded the Governmental, IMF and our own expectations in the last quarter of 2009, declining in the fourth quarter by 2.4% y-o-y, which is still a much lower indicator than in the first three quarters of the year. This was primarily determined by a moderate stabilization of remittances, influencing the households’ consumption, as well as by stabilizing investments. Nevertheless, in the short-run it will be impossible to change the model of economic growth in Moldova, the final consumption expected to remain the main engine of economic growth.

Monday, 01 March 2010 00:00

Real Economy, no.12

In this issue of the Real Economy we analyze the vulnerability of the Moldovan economy to the country’s political situation, the importance of the creation of the Agency for Agricultural Interventions and Payments, the causes of the impressive growth in industrial production and consumer prices, as well as the stabilization noticed in the banking sector, public finances, consumption and foreign trade.

Monday, 04 January 2010 00:00

Real Economy, no.11

During Q1-Q3’09 the GDP declined by 7.7% y-o-y, the most worrisome sign being the much stronger decrease in investments. In this edition of the Real Economy, we maintain our positive forecasts for 2010-2011, but with the economy’s investment starvation apparently getting worse, we do not believe that Moldova will recover easily to the pre-crisis GDP.

Thursday, 08 October 2009 00:00

Real Economy, no.10

The new government led by Vlad Filat has taken a course of much more rigorous economic policy; the government decided to remove all structural and institutional constraints that prevent proper functioning of the economy. Given the fact that most of these constraints were enacted during the Communist Party rule, the Alliance for European Integration should not have any problems with immediate removal of monopolies, prohibitions and other constraints. In this context, it is important that the new government does not make the "manual handling" of the economy a permanent  exercise, but ensures the good functioning of the institutional system that was designed specifically to ensure the proper functioning of markets. Find out more about what should be the economic priorities of the new government in issue no. 10 of the Real Economy.

Full version is available only in Romanian.

Thursday, 13 August 2009 00:00

Real Economy, no.9

In June the first signs that the severe recession in the real sector of the Moldovan economy could be over appeared. New economic trends - still fragile, but positive - were conditioned by favourable developments on the regional markets, but also the optimism - still moderate - regarding the global economic outlook. What will follow in the coming months in Moldova, a stabilization or the second wave of recession? Everything will depend on the speed with which the new government implements the necessary structural and institutional reforms to address short-term crisis' implications and to set the economy on a higher quality growth trajectory. Find out what are the main challenges for the new government in Real Economy no. 9.

Full version is available only in Romanian.

Tuesday, 30 June 2009 00:00

Real Economy, no.8

Moldovan economy in the last two months was marked by electoral circumstances and political objectives of the ruling party. The content and tone of the interim government program has disappointed the audience, waiting to see a clear set of anti-crisis measures, but instead received a new portion of sterile patriotism. The deep recession of the economy in the first quarter (-6.9%) is somewhat lower than average in Central and Eastern Europe, but is strong enough to prove inconsistency of claims made by the representatives of the ruling party that political crisis and early elections are the factors that triggered the economic crisis in the country. More about economic developments during the crisis can be found in Real Economy no. 8.

Full version is available only in Romanian.

Wednesday, 28 January 2009 00:00

Real Economy, no.7

The electoral campaign began long before the Central Election Commission announced the official start. Obviously, the ruling party has the largest number of communication, administrative and budgetary tools, sufficient to acquire a large part of votes. For this purpose the government does not ignore the economic tools for manipulating the electoral behaviour. Communist Party electoral strategy pays special attention "salary enchantment" of teachers. But a series of events launched in 2008 remain unresolved. Were the lessons learned by the current government? Are the new parties that tend to enter the parliament ready to react to them? Learn more about this in issue no. 7 of Real Economy.

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