Relevance of the Economic Leading Indicator for assessment of the Moldova's economic cycle

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Publishing date: Monday, 09 July 2012
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In April 2012, has developed and launched the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI), a special analytic tool very useful for the assessment of the economic fluctuations and for anticipation of the short-term shocks. With longer time series provided by the Ministry of Economy and National Bank of Moldova, this document completes the initial analysis by extending the period which initially was used to calculate the ELI, by testing the anticipatory properties of the ELI against the GDP historical data, as well as by applying spectral analysis in order to assess how adequate is the ELI for defining the fluctuations of the Moldovan economy. The analysis underscores the recent economic trends and presents the main risks Moldovan economy faces in the context of ongoing economic troubles in the Euro area and elsewhere.

Full version is available only in Romanian.

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