Why Does the NBM Relax its Monetary Policy, And What Could be The Results? Inflation Forecasts for 2012

Print
Publishing date: Friday, 02 March 2012
Views: 10457

The purpose of this analysis is to simulate, with a Structural Vector Auto Regressive (SVAR) Model, the impact of monetary policy decisions of the National Bank of Moldova, the main factors which affect their efficiency, as well as to develop forecasts on inflation. Thus, we conclude that the main challenge for monetary authority in the process of inflation targeting is the strong influence of non-monetary inflationary factors. These depend on production costs, prices on energy resources and world prices, factors which cannot be influenced by monetary policy. Depending on the regional inflationary trends, weather conditions and a set of domestic factors (exchange rate, economic activity, production costs and monetary policy stance) we forecast a 4.5%, y-o-y inflation level for the end of 2012. It might vary by ±1 p.p. depending on the foreign economic conditions and, respectively, on domestic food prices, climate, as well as on the global energy prices 

Tags: Developer
Print

Access the monitoring application

app61
apl1 en
aplicat6en
aplicat611en
app7
apl2 en
rap eu en
app8
apl3 en
aplicat81en

Projects

scoala en

lapunct en

budget en

You use the ADS Blocker component.
We do not use advertising elements, we only present our own products or donors that promote some projects. Some features may be blocked, please disable the ADS Blocker component.
Thanks for understanding!

Resetează

Cursor:

Contrast:

Dimensiune Font:

Alb/Negru:

Referințe:

Imagine: