Real Economy, December 2019, (#60)

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Publishing date: Thursday, 19 December 2019
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Top 10 economic events in 2019 and top 10 challenges for 2020

During 2019, economic trends stabilized and did not show any prerequisite for acceleration. The Early Warning Index, calculated quarterly by Expert-Grup, shows some rather timid signs of growing economic trends, which seem rather uncertain against the background of worrying trends in private investment activity, remittances and exports. However, the expansionary budgetary policy is expected to boost the government's investment activity for the second consecutive year, although with certain risks for the economic growth in the next years. 

The current special edition of Economic Reality outlines the 10 major economic events in 2019, as well as the 10 major challenges for 2020 (and not only), according to Expert-Grup.  

Top 10 economic events in 2019:
1. Stabilization of economic growth
2. Monetary policy easing 
3. Investors' reluctance
4. Adoption of the state budget for 2020
5. Closing the process of shareholders’ restructuring of systemically important banks
6. Enforcement of the law on salaries in the public sector
7. Decline in remittances
8. Deceleration of exports
9. Higher population's indebtedness and regulation of the micro-lending sector
10. Integration of results of the 2014 population census in official statistics.

Top 10 economic challenges for 2020:
1. Financing of the budget deficit 
2. Under-execution of public investment projects funded from external sources
3. Security of supply of natural gas 
4. Decrease in the population's income growth rates
5. More severe labour market conditions
6. Climate risks
7. Ensuring the legal and decision-making independence of the NBM
8. Investigation of frauds in the banking sector
9. Cooling of the world economy
10. Pressures on the current account.

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Tags: Natalia Chitii

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