Budget Rectification for 2015: the disaster will be avoided, but further risks await in 2016

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Publishing date: Monday, 16 November 2015
Views: 10892

Abstract

Moldovan economy faced this year many challenges, which had negative repercussions on the public finances. Budgetary revenues were affected largely due to the decrease in imports, freezing the foreign assistance and the rising cost of issuing government bonds. Lower incomes have negatively influenced expenditures, which were at a lower level that in previous years.

Although the economic context was unfavorable, National Public Budget revenues all but met the receipts’ planning in the first nine months, by 98.5%, with 0.4% p.p. less than in the first nine months of 2014. At the same time, the situation is clearly better than in 2009, when the receipts’ execution was only 85.5%.The weak leak in terms of receipts are VAT revenues, with a 1.15% decrease or MDL1.18 billion ($59 million, 1.1% of GDP). The contraction has been caused by lower imports bound to Moldova.

In terms of expenditures, the biggest adjustments were made from the account of economy sphere (agriculture, industry, transport, etc.) in order to prevent the social sector cuts (education, healthcare etc.). The economic sphere expense cuts totaled MDL773.1 million (-9.2%), while the social sector ones, only MDL463.5 million (-1.4%). The deepest cuts were made in the group transports, road management, communication and technology (-MDL507.6 million) and fuel and energy (-MDL395.4 million).

Public finances won’t collapse by the end of this year. Main risks though are related to projecting and executing the National Public Budget for 2016. First, a big load depends on signing an agreement with IFM and second, how the guarantees issued by NBM will be transformed into public debt and at what cost this will be done. This will be crucial for our country’s financial sustainability in the next years.

 

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Acest studiu a fost elaborat de Expert-Grup în cadrul proiectului „Procesul bugetar în Republica Moldova: Monitorizarea transparenței și promovarea controlului public”, implementat cu suportul financiar al Fundației Soros-Moldova, Programul Bună Guvernare. Opiniile exprimate aparţin autorilor şi nu reflectă neapărat punctul de vedere al Fundaţiei Soros-Moldova sau al partenerilor acesteia.

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finanțele publice nu vor fi în stare critică la final de an, luând în considerare toți factorii care au influențat executarea BPN. Principalele riscuri, însă, țin de proiectarea și executarea BPN pe anul 2016. În primul rând este vorba de condiționalitatea semnării unui acord cu FMI, iar în al doilea rând, despre modul în care se va rezolva transformarea garanțiilor emise de BNM în datorie publică și la ce cost va fi făcut acest lucru. Acest fapt va fi crucial pentru sustenabilitatea finanțelor publice în anii viitori”, a conchis Iurie Morcotîlo.

Tags: Natalia Chitii

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