Real Economy from June 2015 (#52)

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Evoluția Indicelui Compozit Anticipator în iunie 2015 Evoluția Indicelui Compozit Anticipator în iunie 2015
Publishing date: Monday, 29 June 2015
Views: 18215

Key points from this edition

  • Economic growth will slow noticeably and the economy is expected to stagnate by the end of this year. In the context of these extremely difficult economic, social and political conditions, it is necessary to strengthen the political elite and civil society in order to urgently develop a crisis plan. The plan must include at least three sets of immediate measures: (i) stabilizing the banking system and addressing the situation at the three troubled banks -  BEM, BS and UB; (ii) stabilizing public finances, restoring dialogue with development partners thus avoiding default risk; (iii) liberalizing the business environment and encouraging entrepreneurship.
  • The surprising economic growth announced by the National Bureau of Statistics was mainly fuelled by currency depreciation, which indeed spurred social discontent, but also inflated the value in Moldovan Lei (MDL) of remittances and exports.  Therefore, in the first quarter, total exports of goods expressed in USD fell by 14.7%, but adjusted to MDL, these have grown with with 3%. Also, while remittances expressed in USD fell by 33%, this value, adjusted to MDL and inflation, increased with 16%.

 

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Tags: Natalia Chitii

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