Moldova’s economy remains exposed to external shocks. Economic Leading Indicator, calculated by Expert-Grup and which includes six benchmark macroeconomic metrics, settled at 89 points after a continuous seven month’ decline, although it is still well below the 100 mark showing growth. This suggests that the recession is gradually turning into stagnation (zero growth).
The main pressure factors have external sources. Thus, in March 2015 the volume of remittances tumbled 26% over the last year, while exports fell by 18%. Both indicators reflect those traditional sources of external shocks to the national economy. Although the biggest constraints come from the economic crises in Russia and Ukraine, some pressure is coming from EU economies too. Therefore, in March 2015 exports fell both to the CIS countries (-36.2%) and to the EU (-10%), while remittances from Russia decreased with 34% and those from the EU with 11%.