MEGA XII: The year of a looming crisis, Q1-2015

Publishing date: Wednesday, 15 April 2015
Views: 20872

See below the abstract. Download here the full report in English.

The 2015 is going to be a difficult economic year, the Gross Domestic Product being expected to decline by about 0.2% according to the baseline scenario and by 1.8% according to the pessimistic scenario. The repercussions of external constraints to economic growth will be amplified by the domestic ones. Particularly, the economic recession in the Russian Federation and Ukraine will cause the reduction in remittances (-7%) and exports of goods and services (-0.5%). Moreover, the level of uncertainty will be fuelled by the high probability of worsening of the security crisis in Ukraine, whereas the maintenance of Russian trade restrictions and the slow recovery of the EU economies will continue putting pressures on the Moldovan economy.

External factors will be amplified by domestic constraints. Thus, the worsening situation in the banking sector and the volatility of the national currency - which has increased the level of uncertainty and has eroded the confidence of consumers and enterprises - is bound to reduce lending in lei (-30%), investments (-4%), tax revenues (-3%) and the final consumption (-1.2%). Overall, most economic sectors are going to decline: industry (-2%), construction (-1.5%), domestic trade of goods and services (-0.2%) and transportation (-0.2%). Assuming relatively favorable climate conditions this year, agriculture will maintain its positive trend, although the growth will be much slower than in previous years (+1.5%). Despite this fact, farmers will remain in a difficult economic situation due to lower prices on agricultural products that are subject to trade restrictions imposed by the Russia.


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Tags: Natalia Chitii


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