Elaborating the MEGA - Moldova Economic Growth Analysis, no.4

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Project title: Elaborating the MEGA - Moldova Economic Growth Analysis, no.4;

Implementation period: February 11 – June 15, 2011;

Funded by: Konrad Adenauer Foundation;

Project goal: Elaboration of the issue no.4 of the MEGA - Moldova Economic Growth Analysis, Spring edition 2011;

Main activities:

  • Collected and analyzed the statistical data necessary for development of the issue no.4 of the MEGA;
  • Updated the econometric models used for analysis and forecast;
  • Wrote the issue no.4 of the MEGA;
  • Organized a national public event to present and discuss the issue no.4 of the MEGA;

Main outputs and outcomes:

  • Issue no.4 of the MEGA, printed in Romanian and English languages and distributed;
  • National Conference “Moldovan economy: evolutions, risks, options”. 4th edition, 9 of August 2011, with participation of 45 policy experts;

Project impact:

The issue no.4 of the MEGA brought a number of significant economic trends to the attention of the policymakers and analysts. One of the most worrying trends reflected by the MEGA no.4 was the political competition for the redesign of the spheres of economic influence taking most of time and resources of the ruling coalition and the risk of this competition to get out of the control - which eventually took place in August-October 2011. Our warning that EU may end the 'honeymoon' preceded by one month the corresponding statement made by EU official representatives in Moldova. The review forecasted the impressive economic growth to take place in the country in 2011 but at the same time drew attention to the fact that this growth will rest on fragile and narrow foundations both in social and geographic terms, with a somewhat eerie reflection on the labor market. MEGA no.4 was the first to launch updated economic forecast for 2011, with its figures being taken as reference two months after by the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Moldova.

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