Economic and political monthly review

Post-COVID-19 crisis: what will the Moldovan economy look like?

Thursday, 01 April 2021 Published in Publications
Authors: Valeriu Prohnițchi,

COVID-19 left a rather deep footprint on the Moldovan economy, although the 7% GDP reduction suffered in 2020 was partly due to the impact of the drought. The vulnerability of the Moldovan economy to such…

Real Economy, December 2019, (#60)

Thursday, 19 December 2019 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Dumitru Pîntea, Iurie Morcotîlo, Vadim Gumene, Tatiana Savva,

Top 10 economic events in 2019 and top 10 challenges for 2020 During 2019, economic trends stabilized and did not show any prerequisite for acceleration. The Early Warning Index, calculated quarterly by Expert-Grup, shows some…

Evoluția Indicelui de Alertă Timpurie (media mobilă, ultimele 12 luni))

Real Economy, May 2019, (#59)

Thursday, 30 May 2019 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Dumitru Pîntea, Vadim Gumene, Iurie Morcotîlo,

In spite of the economic stabilization after a period of deceleration, the economic conditions could worsen during the second half of the year. We’ve noticed a certain change in how the Early Warning Index (EWI),…

Real Economy, March 2018, special edition (#58)

Wednesday, 06 March 2019 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Dumitru Pîntea, Iurie Morcotîlo, Vadim Gumene,

Top 5 of the most risky electoral policies before parliamentary elections and recommendations for the new government The year 2019 will be influenced by two contradictory phenomena: the fever of electoral initiatives and policies, which,…

Real Economy, december 2018, special edition (#57)

Friday, 28 December 2018 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Dumitru Pîntea, Iurie Morcotîlo, Vadim Gumene,

Top 5 Positive and Negative Trends of 2018 and Top 5 Economic Challenges for 2019 The 2018 economic year was marked by the mix between some positive economic trends, which were rather shallow, and negative…

Indicele de Alertă Timpurie, septembrie 2018

Real Economy, September 2018 (#56)

Thursday, 20 September 2018 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Dumitru Pîntea, Iurie Morcotîlo, Vadim Gumene,

Economic dynamics remains positive, but many risks persist. The Early Warning Index (EWI), calculated quarterly by Expert-Grup, after a downward trend, in Q2:18 reached the resistance level and stabilized. EWI negative growth during Q2-Q4:17 signaled…

Real Economy, June 2018 (#55)

Thursday, 14 June 2018 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Dumitru Pîntea, Iurie Morcotîlo, Vadim Gumene,

Despite the positive economic dynamics, the trends that could endanger the economic growth are getting stronger. The Early Warning Index (EWI), calculated quarterly by Expert-Grup, posted a downward trend and remained below 0 in Apr:18.…

Portul Internațional Giurgiulești | Foto: Dmitry Kostyukov pentru New York Times

Real Economy from October 2015 (#54)

Monday, 02 November 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Moldovan economy is still in recession. For the 11th consecutive month, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) - an index calculated monthly by Expert-Grup and which aggregates six main macroeconomic indicators, is below 100, which indicates…

Indicele Compozit Anticipator în iunie 2015

Real Economy from July 2015 (#53)

Monday, 10 August 2015 Published in Economic and political monthly review
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Key messages from the edition Moldovan economy continues its decline. In June 2015, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) - an index calculated monthly by Expert-Grup and which aggregates six main macroeconomic indicators, is down 1.6 points…

Evoluția Indicelui Compozit Anticipator în iunie 2015

Real Economy from June 2015 (#52)

Monday, 29 June 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Key points from this edition Economic growth will slow noticeably and the economy is expected to stagnate by the end of this year. In the context of these extremely difficult economic, social and political conditions,…

Real Economy in May 2015 (#51)

Thursday, 21 May 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Moldova’s economy remains exposed to external shocks. Economic Leading Indicator, calculated by Expert-Grup and which includes six benchmark macroeconomic metrics, settled at 89 points after a continuous seven month’ decline, although it is still well…

Monthly economic review, February 2015 (#50)

Thursday, 05 March 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Moldovan economy slows down continuously. Economic Leading Indicator - Expert-Grup’s monthly index which includes 6 main macroeconomic metrics, has fallen for the 3rd month in a row, at 87 points. This dynamic shows ongoing negative…

Real Economy from October 2014 (#50)

Tuesday, 04 November 2014 Published in Publications

This publication is only available in Romanian.

Real Economy from September 2014 (#48)

Thursday, 25 September 2014 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

This publication is only available in Romanian.

Real Economy from July 2014 (#47)

Sunday, 03 August 2014 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

According to the July edition of the Real Economy, Moldovan economy shows continuous sings of a pronounced shift towards the EU market. In the first five months of the year, exports to the EU increased…

Real Economy from June 2014 (#46)

Tuesday, 01 July 2014 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Publication preview (the full version is only available in Romanian). This year signaled a continuously worsening economic situation in Moldova. According to our estimates from the previous issues of the publication, Moldova's economy constantly slows…

Real Economy for April 2014 (#45)

Tuesday, 29 April 2014 Published in Publications

Publication preview (the full version is only available in Romanian) Some worrying trends for Moldovan economy were outlined in the reviewed period. Therefore, during the first three months of this year, the Economic Leading Indicator…

Real Economy for february 2014 (#44)

Tuesday, 04 March 2014 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,

Moldovan economy continued to improve in February 2014. Economic Leading Indicator maintained its ascending trend in Junuary 2014. The increase was determined mainly by the evolution of exports, internal consumption and credit activity. Nonetheless, several…

Real Economy from January 2014 (#43)

Monday, 03 February 2014 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Victoria Vasilescu,

Moldovan economy continues to grow, but some internal and external risks persist. In December 2013, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) continued its ascending trend, with a 2.4% increase from the previous month (100.9 from 98.5…

Real Economy from November 2013 (#42)

Monday, 02 December 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Victoria Vasilescu,

Moldovan economy keeps recovering, but not quickly enough. In October, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) increased by 2 points compared to the previous month (98.9 compared to 96.9 points), highlighting a continuation of the ascending…

Real Economy, nr. 41

Monday, 04 November 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Victoria Vasilescu,

In the current year, Moldovan economy has managed to maintain its recovery trend after the 2012 contraction. Moreover, the evolution of the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) – a monthly computed index by EXPERT GRUP, shows…

Real Economy, no. 40

Monday, 08 July 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Victoria Vasilescu,

The Economic Leading Indicator updated for May:13 shows a fledgling revival, mainly supported by a healthy expansion in lending, remittances and consumption. However, the recent climate anomalies are likely to take their toll on the…

Real Economy, no. 39

Thursday, 06 June 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

The Economic Leading Indicator up-dated with the latest data available is sending mixed signals. On the one hand, exports to EU are declining, while remittances and money in circulation decelerated their growth. On the other…

Real Economy, no. 38

Thursday, 02 May 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

According to the last statistical data, the Moldovan economy remained volatile with relatively gloom immediate prospects. For the following months, the biggest challenge will be to consolidate the macroeconomic stability amid escalating political tensions and…

Real Economy, no. 37

Monday, 01 April 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

The economic leading indicator suggests the Moldovan economy entering into a nascent recovery phase in 2013. Nevertheless, the sluggish and volatile dynamics of this indicator points to a rather modest growth for the upcoming years,…

Real Economy, no. 36

Wednesday, 27 February 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

The end of 2012 brought a mix of worrisome and optimistic news regarding the macroeconomic conditions. On the bright side, the economic downturn ended. On the dark one, the growth prospects are quite bleak. In…

Real Economy, no. 35

Thursday, 31 January 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

Despite the negative economic growth registered in the third quater of 2012 and which is estimated to have persisted until the end of the year, the economic leading indicator (ELI) computed by EXPERT-GRUP posted a…

Real Economy, no. 34

Thursday, 20 December 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi, Dumitru Budianschi,

This is the fifth annual economic radiography made by the Independent Think-Tank EXPERT-GRUP. We find that 2012 was one of the most difficult economic years for Moldova: the country was affected by external economic and…

Real Economy, no. 33

Friday, 14 December 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi, Adrian Lupușor,

A slight increase in the Economic Leading Indicator was registered during the last few months, which could be a positive signal for possible gradual improvement in the economic situation in the following 4-6 months. In…

Real Economy, no.32

Wednesday, 14 November 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

Last three months indicates over the stabilization path of the Moldovan economy, which could serve as an important prerequisite to boost growth in the near future. Thus, in September several indicators registered positive trends: the…

Real Economy, no.31

Friday, 12 October 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

The economic stabilization suggested by the Economic Leading Indicator in the previous edition of the Real Economy persisted in August. Therefore, after a continuous decline since autumn last year, the ELI remained stable for two…

Real Economy, no.30

Tuesday, 18 September 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

The process of Moldovan economy cooling down during the recent months has stabilized, at least for a short period of time. This stabilization has been attested by the evolution of the Economic Leading Indicator we…

Real Economy, no.29

Monday, 25 June 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi, Adrian Lupușor,

The EXPERT-GRUP's previous expectations regarding negative outlook of the Moldovan economy has been confirmed by the quarterly and monthly economic data recently released. As Real Economy no.29 proves, the economic activity is on the downside,…

Real Economy no.27

Friday, 27 April 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

The economic leading indicator (ELI) continued its downward trend in February, revealing the cooling down of the Moldovan economy, which might persist in the near future. Thus, the indicator decreased by 1.1 p.p., which has…

Real Economy, no.26

Thursday, 23 February 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi, Adrian Lupușor,

The slowdown in the economic growth is becoming more obvious, as over the last quarter of 2011 the retail trade and services provided to firms embarked on a downward trend. We anticipate that 2012 will…

Real Economy, no.25

Tuesday, 24 January 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,

At the end of the year, the statistical data denote a less favorable situation for the Republic of Moldova, with risks turning into real facts and lowering economic performance . All the GDP components slowed…

Real Economy, no.24

Wednesday, 28 December 2011 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi, Adrian Lupușor,

This is the fourth annual economic radiography made by the Independent Think-Tank EXPERT-GRUP. We find that the economic growth in 2011 was strong and improved structurally, but consumption continued to be the main growth factor.…

Real Economy, no.23

Wednesday, 23 November 2011 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi, Elena Culiuc,

The most important issues covered by the this issue of the Real Economy are related to the consumers’ rights which have recently became a heated topic of discussion, the main financing sources of consumption, the…

Real Economy, no. 22

Monday, 21 November 2011 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Dumitru Budianschi, Elena Culiuc,

As this issue of the Real Economy shows, we are living a hot political autumn, despite the cold weather outside. This correlates with some warring economic trends nationally and regionally. Important issues covered in this…

Real Economy, no.21

Thursday, 20 October 2011 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Alex Oprunenco, Dumitru Budianschi, Elena Culiuc,

On the first sight the Moldovan economy is flourishing. Not only had Moldova had a high economic growth in Q2'11, but, more importantly, it looks like a healthy growth. However, it is much easier to…

Real Economy, no.20

Friday, 24 June 2011 Published in Publications
Authors: Valeriu Prohnițchi, Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Alex Oprunenco, Elena Culiuc,

The economic growth of 8.4 percent in Q1’11 was outstanding, even though Expert-Grup was more optimistic than the Government when revising upward the forecast for 2011 in May this year. As the 20th edition of…

Real Economy nr. 19

Thursday, 12 May 2011 Published in Publications
Authors: Valeriu Prohnițchi, Ana Popa, Alex Oprunenco, Adrian Lupușor, Elena Culiuc,

In the EU we trust. Or so many major political statements, strategic documents and crucial reforms could well start and end... at least, if we judge by the words of Moldovan leaders starting 2005. Indeed,…

Real Economy, no.18

Monday, 28 March 2011 Published in Publications
Authors: Valeriu Prohnițchi, Ana Popa, Alex Oprunenco, Adrian Lupușor, Elena Culiuc,

The political infightings should not eclipse the economic reforms which are promoted by the Government. Particularly, it is related to the modification of privatization procedures in terms of their simplification, allocation of more competences to…

Real Economy, no.17

Monday, 14 March 2011 Published in Publications
Authors: Valeriu Prohnițchi, Ana Popa, Alex Oprunenco, Adrian Lupușor, Elena Culiuc,

In 2010 Moldovan economy grew faster than other economies in the region, surpassing Government's, NBM's, IMF's and EBRD's expectations. However, the structure of registered economic growth reflects Moldova returning to the pre-crisis growth model based…

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