Economic and political monthly review

Moldovan economy is still in recession. For the 11th consecutive month, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) - an index calculated monthly by Expert-Grup and which aggregates six main macroeconomic indicators, is below 100, which indicates…
Key messages from the edition Moldovan economy continues its decline. In June 2015, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) - an index calculated monthly by Expert-Grup and which aggregates six main macroeconomic indicators, is down 1.6 points…
Key points from this edition Economic growth will slow noticeably and the economy is expected to stagnate by the end of this year. In the context of these extremely difficult economic, social and political conditions,…

Real Economy in May 2015 (#51)

Thursday, 21 May 2015 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,
Moldova’s economy remains exposed to external shocks. Economic Leading Indicator, calculated by Expert-Grup and which includes six benchmark macroeconomic metrics, settled at 89 points after a continuous seven month’ decline, although it is still well…
Moldovan economy slows down continuously. Economic Leading Indicator - Expert-Grup’s monthly index which includes 6 main macroeconomic metrics, has fallen for the 3rd month in a row, at 87 points. This dynamic shows ongoing negative…

Real Economy from October 2014 (#50)

Tuesday, 04 November 2014 Published in Publications
This publication is only available in Romanian.

Real Economy from September 2014 (#48)

Thursday, 25 September 2014 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala,
This publication is only available in Romanian.
According to the July edition of the Real Economy, Moldovan economy shows continuous sings of a pronounced shift towards the EU market. In the first five months of the year, exports to the EU increased…
Publication preview (the full version is only available in Romanian). This year signaled a continuously worsening economic situation in Moldova. According to our estimates from the previous issues of the publication, Moldova's economy constantly slows…

Real Economy for April 2014 (#45)

Tuesday, 29 April 2014 Published in Publications
Publication preview (the full version is only available in Romanian) Some worrying trends for Moldovan economy were outlined in the reviewed period. Therefore, during the first three months of this year, the Economic Leading Indicator…
Moldovan economy continued to improve in February 2014.  Economic Leading Indicator maintained its ascending trend in Junuary 2014. The increase was determined mainly by the evolution of exports, internal consumption and credit activity. Nonetheless, several…
Moldovan economy continues to grow, but some internal and external risks persist. In December 2013, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) continued its ascending trend, with a 2.4% increase from the previous month (100.9 from 98.5…
Moldovan economy keeps recovering, but not quickly enough. In October, the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) increased by 2 points compared to the previous month (98.9 compared to 96.9 points), highlighting a continuation of the ascending…

Real Economy, nr. 41

Monday, 04 November 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Alexandru Fala, Victoria Vasilescu,
In the current year, Moldovan economy has managed to maintain its recovery trend after the 2012 contraction. Moreover, the evolution of the Economic Leading Indicator (ELI) – a monthly computed index by EXPERT GRUP, shows…

Real Economy, no. 40

Monday, 08 July 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Victoria Vasilescu,
The Economic Leading Indicator updated for May:13 shows a fledgling revival, mainly supported by a healthy expansion in lending, remittances and consumption. However, the recent climate anomalies are likely to take their toll on the…

Real Economy, no. 39

Thursday, 06 June 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,
The Economic Leading Indicator up-dated with the latest data available is sending mixed signals. On the one hand, exports to EU are declining, while remittances and money in circulation decelerated their growth. On the other…

Real Economy, no. 38

Thursday, 02 May 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,
According to the last statistical data, the Moldovan economy remained volatile with relatively gloom immediate prospects. For the following months, the biggest challenge will be to consolidate the macroeconomic stability amid escalating political tensions and…

Real Economy, no. 37

Monday, 01 April 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,
The economic leading indicator suggests the Moldovan economy entering into a nascent recovery phase in 2013. Nevertheless, the sluggish and volatile dynamics of this indicator points to a rather modest growth for the upcoming years,…

Real Economy, no. 36

Wednesday, 27 February 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,
The end of 2012 brought a mix of worrisome and optimistic news regarding the macroeconomic conditions. On the bright side, the economic downturn ended. On the dark one, the growth prospects are quite bleak. In…

Real Economy, no. 35

Thursday, 31 January 2013 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,
Despite the negative economic growth registered in the third quater of 2012 and which is estimated to have persisted until the end of the year, the economic leading indicator (ELI) computed by EXPERT-GRUP posted a…
This is the fifth annual economic radiography made by the Independent Think-Tank EXPERT-GRUP. We find that 2012 was one of the most difficult economic years for Moldova: the country was affected by external economic and…

Real Economy, no. 33

Friday, 14 December 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi, Adrian Lupușor,
A slight increase in the Economic Leading Indicator was registered during the last few months, which could be a positive signal for possible gradual improvement in the economic situation in the following 4-6 months. In…

Real Economy, no.32

Wednesday, 14 November 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,
Last three months indicates over the stabilization path of the Moldovan economy, which could serve as an important prerequisite to boost growth in the near future. Thus, in September several indicators registered positive trends: the…

Real Economy, no.31

Friday, 12 October 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi,
The economic stabilization suggested by the Economic Leading Indicator in the previous edition of the Real Economy persisted in August. Therefore, after a continuous decline since autumn last year, the ELI remained stable for two…

Real Economy, no.30

Tuesday, 18 September 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi,
The process of Moldovan economy cooling down during the recent months has stabilized, at least for a short period of time. This stabilization has been attested by the evolution of the Economic Leading Indicator we…

Real Economy, no.29

Monday, 25 June 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi, Adrian Lupușor,
The EXPERT-GRUP's previous expectations regarding negative outlook of the Moldovan economy has been confirmed by the quarterly and monthly economic data recently released. As Real Economy no.29 proves, the economic activity is on the downside,…

Real Economy no.27

Friday, 27 April 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,
The economic leading indicator (ELI) continued its downward trend in February, revealing the cooling down of the Moldovan economy, which might persist in the near future. Thus, the indicator decreased by 1.1 p.p., which has…

Real Economy, no.26

Thursday, 23 February 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi, Adrian Lupușor,
The slowdown in the economic growth is becoming more obvious, as over the last quarter of 2011 the retail trade and services provided to firms embarked on a downward trend. We anticipate that 2012 will…

Real Economy, no.25

Tuesday, 24 January 2012 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Adrian Lupușor, Valeriu Prohnițchi,
At the end of the year, the statistical data denote a less favorable situation for the Republic of Moldova, with risks turning into real facts and lowering economic performance . All the GDP components slowed…

Real Economy, no.24

Wednesday, 28 December 2011 Published in Publications
Authors: Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi, Adrian Lupușor,
This is the fourth annual economic radiography made by the Independent Think-Tank EXPERT-GRUP. We find that the economic growth in 2011 was strong and improved structurally, but consumption continued to be the main growth factor.…

Real Economy, no.23

Wednesday, 23 November 2011 Published in Publications
Authors: Adrian Lupușor, Ana Popa, Valeriu Prohnițchi, Elena Culiuc,
The most important issues covered by the this issue of the Real Economy are related to the consumers’ rights which have recently became a heated topic of discussion, the main financing sources of consumption, the…
As this issue of the Real Economy shows, we are living a hot political autumn, despite the cold weather outside. This correlates with some warring economic trends nationally and regionally. Important issues covered in this…
On the first sight the Moldovan economy is flourishing. Not only had Moldova  had a high economic growth in Q2'11, but, more importantly, it looks like a healthy growth. However, it is much easier to…
The economic growth of 8.4 percent in Q1’11 was outstanding, even though Expert-Grup was more optimistic than the Government when revising upward the forecast for 2011 in May this year. As the 20th edition of…
In the EU we trust. Or so many major political statements, strategic documents and crucial reforms could well start and end... at least, if we judge by the words of Moldovan leaders starting 2005. Indeed,…
The political infightings should not eclipse the economic reforms which are promoted by the Government. Particularly, it is related to the modification of privatization procedures in terms of their simplification, allocation of more competences to…
In 2010 Moldovan economy grew faster than other economies in the region, surpassing Government's, NBM's, IMF's and EBRD's expectations. However, the structure of registered economic growth reflects Moldova returning to the pre-crisis growth model based…
The radiography of the 2010 economic year covers three essential aspects: a) the most important 5 economic events of 2010; b) the most revealing 5 macroeconomic trends; c) the most noticeable 5 faults of the…
The new government led by Vlad Filat has taken a course of much more rigorous economic policy; the government decided to remove all structural and institutional constraints that prevent proper functioning of the economy. Given…
During the first half of 2011, Moldova registered a good economic dynamic, with an economic growth of 5.6% y-o-y, accelerating from the previous quarter. This evolution was mostly due to increasing growth rate in agriculture,…
After the first signs of economic recovery already appeared at the end of 2009, the Moldovan economy returned to a robust growth of 4.7% during the first quarter of 2011. At the same time, final…
Moldovan economy has exceeded the Governmental, IMF and our own expectations in the last quarter of 2009, declining in the fourth quarter by 2.4% y-o-y, which is still a much lower indicator than in the…
In this issue of the Real Economy we analyze the vulnerability of the Moldovan economy to the country’s political situation, the importance of the creation of the Agency for Agricultural Interventions and Payments, the causes…
During Q1-Q3’09 the GDP declined by 7.7% y-o-y, the most worrisome sign being the much stronger decrease in investments. In this edition of the Real Economy, we maintain our positive forecasts for 2010-2011, but with…
In June the first signs that the severe recession in the real sector of the Moldovan economy could be over appeared. New economic trends - still fragile, but positive - were conditioned by favourable developments…
Moldovan economy in the last two months was marked by electoral circumstances and political objectives of the ruling party. The content and tone of the interim government program has disappointed the audience, waiting to see…
The electoral campaign began long before the Central Election Commission announced the official start. Obviously, the ruling party has the largest number of communication, administrative and budgetary tools, sufficient to acquire a large part of…
Moldovan economy in the third quarter of this year was characterized by a "numbness" in some areas. There was a decrease in the growth rate of industrial production and investment activity. Coupled with higher interest…
The evolution Moldovan economy in the first half of 2008 was ambiguous, being marked by a series of positive trends overlapping with negative trends or obvious risks. The real sector is still trying to recover…
Developments in May-June indicate over the continuous revival of the industrial sector, amid deepening inflationary pressures related to increasing food prices, energy and the inflows of foreign currency in the country. In these circumstances, the…
The evolutions during April-May showed contradictory economic developments. The general trend displays a dynamics of industrial recovery. However, it is combined with the macroeconomic risks related to price increase for energetic resources and foodstuffs. Thus,…

Real Economy, no.1

Friday, 28 March 2008 Published in Publications
Authors: Valeriu Prohnițchi, Ana Popa, Alex Oprunenco,
The major event of this quarter was the dismissal of the Government led by Vasile Tarlev and the appointment of Zinaida Greceanii as a candidate for prime minister. Although we anticipate a technocrat government, it…

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